The warehouse sector in Central Asia is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with more than 1.6 million sq. m of new facilities announced for delivery in the coming years. However, despite active construction, the region is expected to continue facing a shortage of high-quality warehouse infrastructure at least until 2040, according to Logistan, citing projections from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).

Experts warn that insufficient warehouse capacity may particularly affect industries requiring specialized storage conditions — most notably agribusiness and the pharmaceutical sector. EDB estimates suggest that demand for warehouse space in Central Asia could exceed supply by more than five times in the long term.

Current Market Overview

As of Q1 2025, the total warehouse stock across the Eurasian region is estimated at 58 million sq. m, with Central Asia accounting for only a small share:

• - Kazakhstan — 1.6 million sq. m

• - Uzbekistan — 0.8 million sq. m

Under the EDB baseline scenario, Central Asia’s warehouse capacity could expand to 19.6 million sq. m by 2040. A more optimistic scenario projects growth to 25.5 million sq. m.

The strongest increase is expected in the region’s two largest economies:

• - Kazakhstan — 9.3–12.6 million sq. m

• - Uzbekistan — 5.9–7.6 million sq. m

• - Tajikistan — 1.6 million sq. m

Key Growth Drivers

Analysts identify several major factors that will continue to fuel demand for warehouse infrastructure:

• - economic growth and industrialization;

• - expansion of e-commerce and retail;

• - increasing transit and freight volumes;

• - growth of professional 3PL logistics services.

Segments Most Likely to Face Shortages

By 2040, warehouse demand across the Eurasian region may rise to 101–123 million sq. m. In Central Asia, the most significant demand growth is expected in several key segments.

Retail and Distribution Networks

The need for fulfillment hubs, distribution centers, and last-mile logistics facilities is projected at:

• - Kazakhstan — 5–8 million sq. m

• - Uzbekistan — 3–4 million sq. m

• - Turkmenistan — 1.5–1.8 million sq. m

• - Tajikistan — 1.2–1.4 million sq. m

• - Kyrgyzstan — 0.5–0.6 million sq. m

E-commerce

The continued rise of online commerce will further increase demand for fulfillment centers:

• - Kazakhstan — 1.7–2.3 million sq. m

• - Uzbekistan — 1–1.2 million sq. m

• - Tajikistan — 0.32–0.38 million sq. m

• - Kyrgyzstan — 0.22–0.27 million sq. m

• - Turkmenistan — 0.17–0.2 million sq. m

Agrologistics and Cold Storage

The strongest demand for refrigerated warehouse facilities is expected in Uzbekistan:

• - Uzbekistan — 0.95–1.4 million sq. m

•  - Kazakhstan — 0.2–0.5 million sq. m

In Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan, demand remains limited to tens of thousands of square meters, highlighting persistent gaps in agricultural storage infrastructure.

Pharmaceutical Logistics Hubs

Demand for GMP-compliant pharmaceutical warehouse facilities in Kazakhstan may rise to 472,000 sq. m by 2040.

Meanwhile, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are expected to still have very limited specialized pharmaceutical infrastructure. In Uzbekistan, demand may decline due to an oversupply of state-sector pharmaceutical warehouses and anticipated optimization of medicine distribution systems.

Conclusion

Despite ongoing development, Central Asia’s warehouse market is likely to remain structurally undersupplied over the next 15 years. The most vulnerable industries will be those requiring specialized logistics — particularly agricultural exports and pharmaceuticals. As a result, warehouse real estate is emerging as one of the region’s most critical areas for investment and infrastructure growth.